Timber Supply in Oregon & Washington circa Autumn 2025

By Steve Courtney & John Kelley, The Beck Group Consulting

Service Spotlight: Fiber Supply and Demand, Strategic Planning,

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In February 2022, we at The Beck Group Consulting offered our estimate of future timber supply in Oregon and Washington. In that blog post, we predicted that timber harvest in the two states would drop approximately 575 million board feet—resulting in mills closing, people losing their jobs, and communities suffering economic loss. Based on 2024 harvest data, it appears that our estimate was short with 2024 harvest levels being just over 5.5 billion board feet. This represents a drop of over a billion board feet from the 2017-2021 average harvest level of 6.5 billion board feet we presented in our 2022 forecast.

Three years later, in retrospect we find that we were correct in the trend, but low in our estimate. Unfortunately, mills have closed. We predicted seven would close in Oregon and that proved to be true, with others closing then reopening. In Washington we predicted one mill would close; one has, but its future and reopening potential are undecided.

While log supply had an impact on mill closures, the market for wood products also played a part. Housing starts, home repair, and remodeling (the leading consumers of wood products) have been slow in recent years due to higher interest rates and economic concerns. This keeps the price for wood products down while inflation has increased facilities’ operating costs. Combined with a decrease in log supply—keeping log prices high— this is not a recipe for success in the wood products business.

The demand for export logs has waned during this period, which helps the log market for domestic mills. Log prices in the western U.S. remain high enough that ours do not compete favorably with other countries’ log supplies to foreign countries. Japan, China, and Korea are the countries that purchase the most logs from the Northwest. The decline in demand from China has been most significant, primarily due to a slowing of their economy.

What do we see for future Pacific Northwest harvests?

Oregon

The harvest in Oregon is likely near the bottom of its predictable range, as most of the regulatory issues are being implemented (although implementation is not completely decided).

Washington

North of the Columbia, things are a bit uncertain as the Commissioner of Public Lands has removed 77,000 acres of timber from the inventory used to establish the Washington DNR’s Sustainable Harvest Calculation (SHC). This comes after four years of the DNR falling woefully short of selling their planned volume. These lower volumes are likely to be the norm in the future.

In addition, the Washington Forest Practices Board has recommended that perennial non-fish-bearing (Np) streams in Western Washington receive increased protection. These protections are estimated to decrease harvest by at least another 100 million board feet (MMBF). This rule is currently being evaluated; its implementation is uncertain, but history has shown that once an idea of this nature develops, it eventually comes to fruition.

When the 2022 article was written, the DNR harvest was averaging over 540 MMBF and we anticipated a drop of 124 MMBF based on the Sustainable Harvest Calculation for the next decade. Last fiscal year the DNR sold almost 390 MMBF, a 150 MMBF drop. If the new Np stream rule is implemented, the total reduction in Washington’s timber harvest could be 250 MMBF.

Federal

Federal agencies are the bright spot in the timber harvest discussion. While many in the industry have a difficult time relying on the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management due to their record over the last 30 years, they are discussing higher harvest levels. These increased harvest levels on Federal lands will not bring harvest levels to historic averages—but when an industry is short of raw materials, every bit helps.

At The Beck Group, we will continue our role as soothsayers for the timber industry’s ships as they sail into storms, becalmed waters, and regulatory headwinds. Over 130 years of timber industry experience apply to every report and forecast. If you are concerned about log supplies and costs, that experience is available to you. You can email info@beckgroupconsulting.com, use the comment form on this blog post, or take advantage of our old-schoolness by dialing (503) 684-3406. A live person will answer or return your call, and we’ll get you in touch with the consulting professional best qualified to help your operation achieve its goals.

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The Beck Group, Inc.

Forest Products Planning and Consulting Services

Telephone (503) 684-3406

Email: info@beckgroupconsulting.com